Overview

This tab shows the value of the probability of HPAI introduction in wild birds in Europe (PIntro) for the current week of the year and the past 3 weeks.

Data are presented on a grid of 50 square kilometers and combine information about abundance, long- and short- distance movements of 12 wild bird species as well as HPAI outbreaks at origin of those movements. See Tab 'About the project' for more information on the model.

Please note that the outbreak data are extracted from EMPRES-i meaning that not all the outbreaks reported to WAHIS or ADIS may be taken into account yet. Exploring different sources of outbreak data will be done later on in the project.

1. Current probability of HPAI introduction

Most recent data are from 2023-05-28. The probability of HPAI introduction has been calculated for the week number 22, which has started on 2023-05-22

2. Probability of HPAI introduction in the past 3 weeks

HPAI outbreaks in wild birds reported to EMPRES-i within these 3 weeks are indicated as blue dots on the corresponding maps.



Historical data

This tab shows the value of the probability of HPAI introduction in wild birds in Europe (PIntro) for a time period of your choice.

Data are presented on a grid of 50 square kilometers and combine information about abundance, long- and short- distance movements of 12 wild bird species as well as HPAI outbreaks at origin of those movements. See Tab 'About the project' for more information on the model.

Please note that the outbreak data are extracted from EMPRES-i meaning that not all the outbreaks reported to WAHIS or ADIS may be taken into account yet. Exploring different sources of outbreak data will be done later on in the project.

Select your date of interest. The App will then display PIntro and reported HPAI outbreaks in wild birds in that specific week and during the 11 weeks BEFORE that date.

Probability of HPAI introduction

HPAI outbreaks in wild birds reported to EMPRES-i during the 12 weeks of interest are indicated as blue dots on the corresponding maps.



About the project

This Shiny graphical user interface (GUI) has been developed for EFSA as part of the project named 'Development of a prototype early warning system for HPAI in the EU based on risk-mapping' (contract NP/EFSA/ALPHA/2021/02).

The purpose of this project was to develop a spatiotemporal risk assessment to estimate the probability of HPAI outbreaks in the wild bird population by spatiotemporal unit across the European Union.

As part of a new EFSA project (December 2022 to December 2025), the spatiotemporal risk assessment model is now updated on real time meaning that new results are displayed every Monday morning based on the latest HPAI outbreaks (H5 and H7) reported in wild birds in Europe.

Please note that the model and this GUI will be updated and improved during the course of the project. In particular the key next steps are:

  1. September 2023 - Exploration and test of different data sources for data on disease outbreaks and new web interface
  2. August 2024 - Update of the risk assessment model based on new versions of the models related to wild birds abundance and movements including additional species
  3. August 2024 - Expansion of the risk assessment model to allow the prediction of the risk of introduction and establishment of HPAI in poultry
  4. August 2025 - Update and improvement of the risk assessment model based on a new integrated version of the models related to wild birds abundance and movements
  5. December 2025 - Final model validation

Important notes: Delay in outbreak reporting has a major impact on the quality of the model prediction. To take into account the outbreaks occurring several weeks ago but only reported within the last week, the model is re-run every week for the last 16 weeks. In practice, it means that the model outputs are updated every week not only for the week to come but also for the last 16 weeks. Delay in data transfer from WAHIS and ADIS to EMPRES-i can also impact the quality of the model prediction and result in low PIntro. To minimize these issues, the project team will explore different data source on disease outbreaks within the next few months. In addition, at this stage Cyprus and Türkiye are unfortunately not included in the model calculations because of lack of some of the input data used in the model.

Project members:
  1. Sovon, the Dutch Centre for Field Ornithology coordinates the project.
  2. The Catalan Ornithological Institute (ICO) used citizen data on abundance and distribution of wild birds available in the EuroBirdPortal (EBP) to estimate the expected relative abundance of 12 wild bird species across Europe.
  3. The British Trust for Ornithology (BTO) used data from EURING DataBank to provide estimates for long-distance movements of migratory populations and short-distance dispersal models of the same 12 wild bird species in Europe.
  4. Ausvet Europe developed the spatiotemporal risk assessment model using as input the data provided by ICO and BTO.
Spatiotemporal risk assessment model description

In this model, the probability of an HPAI outbreak (PIntro) is defined as the probability that HPAI virus enters a given area via wild bird movements (probability of entry) and is able to be transmitted to at least one other wild bird in the area under consideration (probability of establishment).

The risk factors considered in the model include:

  1. Wild bird order and species
  2. Number of migratory birds
  3. Migration patterns
  4. Notification of Avian Influenza outbreaks at origin

The 12 wild bird species included in the model are: Common teal (Anas crecca), Eurasian wigeon (Mareca penelope), Mallard (Anas platyrhynchos), Greater White-fronted Goose (Anser albifons), Greylag Goose (Anser anser), Pink-footed Goose (Anser brachyrhynchus), Bean Goose (Anser fabalis), Common Pochard (Aythya ferina), Tufted Duck (Aythya fuligula), Canada Goose (Branta canadensis), Whooper Swan (Cygnus cygnus), Mute Swan (Cygnus olor).

The spatial scale of the final model was defined based on the EEA 50x50km grid cell. The temporal scale of the final model was defined as a week of a year using as reference the weeks used by the EuroBirdPortal.

The model sensitivity and specificity were assessed by comparing the value of the probability of an HPAI outbreak in a given spatiotemporal unit with the actual HPAI outbreaks reported in EMPRES-i.

A full description of the model is available in the EFSA External Scientific Report published in 2022 (see reference below), but changes made to the model compared to this initial model description are briefly summarized below.

Model update January 2022 - the probability of HPAI introduction in the grid cell i at time t takes now better into account what happened in that same grid cell at time t-1, t-2 and t-3. The new optimal cutoff value is PIntro = 0.04 and leads to a sensitivity and specificity of 81%.
Input data

Four main sources of data have been used as input for the model:

  1. Expected abundance of the 12 wild bird species accross Europe (output of the ICO's model)
  2. Long-distance movement of migratory populations accross Europe (output of the BTO's model)
  3. Short-distance movement of migratory populations accross Europe (output of the BTO's model)
  4. Reported outbreaks of HPAI (H5 and H7) in wild bird populations (EMPRES-i)

References:

Disclaimer: EFSA's Bird Flu Radar was produced and adopted by Sovon, ICO, BTO, EuroBirdPortal and Ausvet Europe in the context of a contract with the European Food Safety Authority (EFSA), awarded following a public procurement procedure. It aims at informing stakeholders on the probability of highly pathogenic avian influenza outbreaks occurring in the EU, based on the output of spatiotemporal risk models. The information reflects the state of knowledge available on the date of dispatch. EFSA cannot be held liable for any errors, inaccuracies or inconsistencies with regard to text and/or data contained therein. Therefore, EFSA accepts no responsibility or liability arising out of, or in connection with the information provided. The present document is not to be considered an output adopted by EFSA.